In 2021, the key rate of the Bank of Russia doubled: over seven meetings, it increased from 4.215% to 8.5% per annum. VTB Bank and a number of other banks also raised mortgage rates above 10% at the beginning of the year. According to experts, the rest will not stand aside and housing loans will rise in price, perhaps Sberbank will be among them.
The inflationary processes taking place in the world throughout the past year will continue in 2022, says Alexander Tsyganov, head of the Department of Housing Mortgage Lending at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation. He noted that the key rate most likely will not stop at 8.5% and will add up to 1 percentage point during the first half of 2022.
“It is clear that, following the Bank of Russia, the largest mortgage banks are raising rates, while 10% is a psychologically important milestone for mortgage lenders, and therefore mortgage rates are still lining up around this value, trying not to exceed it. This explains a more restrained growth in mortgage rates under programs without a state subsidy than could be caused by the economic situation and a twofold increase in the key rate in 2021,” Tsyganov told Prime.
In turn, Andrey Barkhota, an expert in the banking sector, noted that issuing mortgages at such a level of risk-free government debt rates is unprofitable, has low economic efficiency, so banks will be forced to raise mortgage rates.
“Now the offer rates of many banks for a number of products are above 10%. This milestone is almost passed. During February, single-digit rates will remain only in preferential programs and joint programs of banks with developers, ”says Sergey Gordeiko, chief expert at Rusipoteka.
Alexander Osin, an analyst at Freedom Finance's trading operations department on the Russian stock market, believes that mortgage rates will reach their maximum in the middle of this year. In his opinion, the estimated base fair level of the key rate of the Bank of Russia for this year is in the region of 8-11 percent per annum.
“The level of mortgage rates under such a scenario could even reach 16 percent,” he told RIA Novosti.
The price of money for banks has risen by 2.5-3 percentage points since the beginning of the year, economist Andrei Barkhota added. According to his forecast, by the end of the first quarter, the current rates will reach 10.5-11.5 percent.
Most market participants will revise the conditions for their mortgage products, Andrey Kolochinsky, managing partner of VectorStroyFinance, is sure.
“Now the average rate on basic mortgage programs is gradually approaching double digits. Most likely, at the next meeting of the Central Bank on the key rate, which will be held on February 11, the regulator will decide to once again increase it, since inflation rates are still significantly higher than the target. If this happens, mortgage rates will rise even more, ”the expert notes.
He suggested that after this there will be a decline in sales from the capital's developers. The situation will become clear when the question arises of extending the state support program launched in 2020.
Experts believe that banks will carefully raise rates on mortgage products, and will not touch the conditions for state programs. Fedor Vylomov, CEO of RASK, said that the rate increase could happen in the near future. However, in the long term, the big players will once again be able to keep the interest rate below the market, he concluded.
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